Strategy behaviour S14
Anticipate Unintended Consequences
Well-meant decisions can backfire. Before you act, think two steps ahead: how will people respond, and what could this change make worse?
Jump to S14 resources ↓What this behaviour looks like
Beware the cobra effect
Before deciding, a leader asks how pupils, staff and families might respond, what behaviour the change could encourage and what happens if it works too well. Those most affected are heard early and safeguards are built in, so the fix does not backfire.
A practical example
Changing the marking policy
Decide and launch“From Monday, every piece of work gets written feedback within two days.”
Anticipating the ripples“Before we decide on the new marking policy, let's ask what it will do to workload and planning time. We'll hear from a few teachers, pilot it in one department and agree now what would make us stop.”
Ask what two-day marking will do to workload and planning.
Hear from a few teachers before the policy is decided.
Pilot in one department and agree now what would stop it.
Before you finalise it, list who it will affect beyond the obvious, ask one person likely to see it differently, and write down what would make you pause or stop.
S14 · Resources for your setting
Put ‘Anticipate Unintended Consequences’ into practice
Develop your own practice or lead the learning with your team. Use the chapter and workbook to explore the behaviour, then choose the resources that fit your next step.
Apply · Your leadership practice
Put it to work
Use the S14 Playbook to turn the behaviour into practical action on a real leadership challenge.
- Practical toolkit and coaching prompts
- A practice script to rehearse your approach
- A 90-day plan to guide your next steps
Members only · Explore membership →
Apply · Learning with your team
Lead a team session
Use the S14 INSET PowerPoint to help colleagues explore the behaviour and plan how to put it into practice.
- Editable slides to adapt to your setting
- Speaker notes to support facilitation
- Discussion, rehearsal and planning
Members only · Explore membership →
Completed Playbooks
See S14 applied in eight leadership contexts
Choose your role to explore the challenge, the leader’s response and the intended result. Members can read the complete example and download an editable Word copy.
In a primary school
In a secondary school
Across schools
Selected completed example
In a primary school · Headteacher
A single arrival gate
Callum · Headteacher · 428-pupil two-form-entry primary school
Worked example at a glance
A single arrival gate
The challengeForty-two pupils were late at least twice last month. One entrance would speed up registration, but siblings use different gates and the path floods in wet weather.
What the leader doesThe headteacher hears from families of pupils with SEND, bus users and staff, keeps a staffed accessible entrance, uses support-led conversations before sanctions and trials the change for ten days.
What success looks likeBy day 30 a safe ten-day trial should be complete; by day 60 the revised routine should be reliable across weather and staffing; by day 90 punctuality should improve without inequitable absence.
Femi · Deputy Headteacher for inclusion and behaviour · two-site primary school, 514 pupils
Worked example at a glance
Replacing public behaviour charts
The challengeBehaviour charts bring quick compliance in some classes, but pupils describe shame and fixed labels, especially pupils with SEND, and staff fear removing them will leave nothing.
What the leader doesThe deputy headteacher pilots a private remind, reset and repair routine in four classes, teaches it explicitly with visual adaptations, publishes recording thresholds and leads weekly rehearsal.
What success looks likeBy day 30 four classes should teach and use the routine safely; by day 60 responses should be consistent and accessible; by day 90 there should be trusted evidence for deciding on expansion.
Eleri · Science Lead and Year 4 teacher · 356-pupil three-form-entry junior school
Worked example at a glance
A common science recording sheet
The challengeTeachers each make their own practical science sheets, and a common template could sharpen pupils' reasoning or simply give weaker writers boxes to fill.
What the leader doesThe Science lead pilots two adaptable versions that accept written, drawn, photographed or spoken evidence, states when no sheet is needed and moderates pupils' reasoning rather than completion.
What success looks likeBy day 30 two versions should be tested across three lessons; by day 60 a common standard should be secure without a compulsory format; by day 90 a proportionate school approach should be agreed.
Gabriela · Headteacher · ages 11 to 18 secondary school, 1,610 pupils
Worked example at a glance
Testing a phone-free school day
The challengePhones cause distraction and online conflict, but some pupils use them to travel safely, monitor a medical condition or translate, and the current rule is applied unevenly.
What the leader doesThe headteacher pilots with two year groups, publishes medical, accessibility and safeguarding exceptions, tests the family contact route, uses central collection and audits who has phones confiscated.
What success looks likeBy day 30 all safety and communication routes should pass testing; by day 60 lessons should be less interrupted without inequitable conflict; by day 90 a safe decision to keep, adapt or stop should be made.
Isobel · Deputy Headteacher for curriculum and standards · ages 11 to 18 secondary school, 1,470 pupils
Worked example at a glance
Year 11 intervention for all
The challengeVoluntary intervention attendance is 54%, and 31 targeted pupils use school transport while others have caring, employment or SEND commitments that make after-school sessions hard.
What the leader doesThe deputy headteacher offers equivalent morning, lunchtime or remote-supported routes, coordinates one plan per pupil, caps frequency and asks subjects to stop low-impact sessions.
What success looks likeBy day 30 a safe multi-route pilot should begin; by day 60 fortnightly reviews should show learning improving without workload or access harm; by day 90 only effective, equitable sessions should remain.
Hassan · Pastoral Lead for Year 10 · ages 11 to 16 secondary school, 1,180 pupils
Worked example at a glance
Fair consequences for lateness
The challengeLate marks are up 18%, but the data cannot yet separate avoidable delay from mobility, toileting, anxiety or the distance between rooms.
What the leader doesThe pastoral lead audits routes and reasons for two weeks first, publishes one definition of late, checks adjustments before challenge and offers a next-day consequence where same-day transport is unreasonable.
What success looks likeBy day 30 the audit should establish reliable causes; by day 60 a time-limited pilot should improve punctuality fairly; by day 90 the evidence should support a decision to keep, adapt or stop.
Jonah · Head of Modern Foreign Languages · ages 11 to 16 secondary school, 1,020 pupils
Worked example at a glance
A fair common assessment window
The challengeTeachers assess at different points, making moderation guesswork, but the draft common window overweights extended writing and takes time from speaking.
What the leader doesThe head of languages agrees a balanced blueprint with French and Spanish teachers, protects speaking time, validates access arrangements and compares pupils' work rather than raw class rankings.
What success looks likeBy day 30 a balanced, accessible pilot should be agreed; by day 60 the pilot should yield reliable moderated evidence; by day 90 a proportionate assessment model should be decided.
Amina · Trust Director of Operations · eleven-school mixed-phase trust
Worked example at a glance
One trust cover platform
The challengeFour cover processes miss late requests and cost two days of reporting a month, but one platform could shut out rural schools' local supply networks and staff using assistive technology.
What the leader doesThe director runs a four-week pilot in three schools, keeps the urgent telephone and local-supply routes, tests accessibility before launch and requires a human check for safeguarding and specialist placements.
What success looks likeBy day 30 the pilot should be under way in all three schools, with the week-two review complete; by day 60 the corrected workflow should work without hidden duplication; by day 90 the rollout or stop decision should be defensible.
The complete Playbook is for members
Turn this example into action
Read the full toolkit, coaching and practice scripts, and 90-day plan. Members can view the PDF here and download an editable Word copy.
Further reading
Recommended book
Thinking in Systems – Donella Meadows (2008)
This book helps you practise the behaviour by revealing how decisions ripple through a system, equipping you to predict impact and act with foresight.
References from the Everyone Succeeds book
- Senge, P.M. (1990) The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. New York: Doubleday/Currency. Buy on Amazon ↗
- Simon, H.A. (1957) Models of Man: Social and Rational. New York: John Wiley & Sons. View page ↗
- Thaler, R.H. and Sunstein, C.R. (2008) Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press. Buy on Amazon ↗
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