S15. Plan with a Premortem toolkit
Toolkit
Planning with a premortem means imagining a project has already failed and working backwards to uncover why. This exercise allows leaders to expose hidden risks, challenge assumptions, and adapt their plan before mistakes happen. By doing so, they move from blind optimism to thoughtful foresight, creating stronger, more resilient strategies.
| Initiative / Project | ||||
| What is the policy, change, or initiative under consideration? | ||||
| Failure Scenario (12 Months On) | ||||
| Imagine the initiative has completely failed. Describe what “failure” looks like in clear, practical terms (e.g. low uptake, increased workload, poor outcomes, resistance). | ||||
| Failure Reasons | ||||
| Ask team members to brainstorm individually, then share and group responses. | ||||
| Failure Reason | Likelihood (H/M/L) | Impact (H/M/L) | Mitigation Strategy | Owner |
| Priority Risks | ||||
| Which 2-3 risks pose the greatest threat? What early actions will prevent them? | ||||
| Plan Revisions | ||||
| What adjustments will you make to strengthen the plan before implementation? | ||||
| Reflection Prompts | ||||
| What hidden assumptions did the premortem expose? Did we hear from all voices, including those who might normally stay quiet? Have we balanced risk awareness with confidence and optimism? What would success and over-success look like, and are we ready for both? | ||||
S15. Plan with a Premortem: example toolkit
Role: Headteacher
| Initiative / Project | ||||
| We are planning to introduce a new behaviour curriculum across the school, explicitly teaching routines, self-regulation, and character through weekly tutor sessions and assemblies. The aim is to improve consistency, reduce low-level disruption, and strengthen the link between our values and daily behaviour. | ||||
| Failure Scenario (12 Months On) | ||||
| A year later, the behaviour curriculum has failed to embed. Tutor sessions are inconsistent, some staff skip or rush them, and students see them as repetitive or irrelevant. Assemblies no longer link to the weekly theme, and the connection between values and conduct has weakened rather than strengthened. Staff express frustration about the time commitment, and behaviour incidents have not improved. Governors question the impact, and the initiative becomes another “launch and leave” project. | ||||
| Failure Reasons | ||||
| Ask team members to brainstorm individually, then share and group responses. | ||||
| Failure Reason | Likelihood (H/M/L) | Impact (H/M/L) | Mitigation Strategy | Owner |
| Insufficient clarity and training on how to deliver tutor sessions effectively. | High | High | Provide clear weekly slide decks, modelled examples, and short professional learning sessions showing how to teach behaviour habits explicitly. | Assistant Headteacher (Culture) |
| Lack of monitoring and feedback to ensure consistency. | High | High | Add fortnightly drop-ins by the pastoral team to celebrate strong delivery and re-teach expectations where needed. Create a quick feedback loop so tutors know what’s working. | Heads of House |
| Staff buy-in wanes due to a lack of visible impact or recognition. | Medium | High | Share quick wins through staff briefings, celebrate classes demonstrating the strongest routines, and gather student voice data to show progress. | Deputy Headteacher |
| The behaviour curriculum content becomes stale or disconnected from students’ experiences. | Medium | Medium | Review materials each half term, using student feedback to refresh examples, scenarios, and discussion questions. | Assistant Headteacher (Personal Development) |
| Senior leaders lose focus as other priorities take over. | Medium | High | Build review and communication of the behaviour curriculum into the leadership calendar, ensuring it remains a standing item in SLT and line management meetings. | Headteacher |
| Priority Risks | ||||
| The two priority risks are inconsistent staff delivery and fading leadership focus. Early actions include securing visible senior presence in tutor sessions for the first six weeks, creating a short monitoring cycle, and ensuring every leader reinforces the weekly theme in briefings, assemblies, and corridor conversations. | ||||
| Plan Revisions | ||||
| To strengthen the plan, we will pilot the behaviour curriculum in one year group first, refining materials before full rollout. We’ll design an impact dashboard showing data on engagement, attendance, and behaviour incidents, reviewed half-termly. Finally, we’ll ensure the link between the behaviour curriculum and our values is reinforced through assemblies, displays, and communication with parents. | ||||
| Reflection Prompts | ||||
| What hidden assumptions did the premortem expose? Did we hear from all voices, including those who might usually stay quiet? Have we balanced risk awareness with confidence and optimism? What would success and over-success look like, and are we ready for both? | ||||